Goldman Sachs: Oil Prices Won’t Hit $100 Until December

Goldman Sachs still expects Brent Crude prices to hit $100 per barrel this year, but only in December compared to earlier expectations of $100 oil as soon as mid-2023, the bank said in a new note in which it cut its average Brent price to $92 a barrel this year from $98.

Despite the cut in oil price forecasts, Goldman Sachs is still one of the most bullish Wall Street banks on crude oil and commodities in general. Goldman continues to believe that there is a new supercycle in the making.

However, higher expected supply from Russia and the United States could lead to a slight surplus of 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, according to Goldman’s note quoted by Bloomberg.

“On the demand side, downgrades in Europe, the United States, and Asia excluding China — reflecting a warm winter and the loss of distillate-based gas-to-oil switching — offset much of the China upgrade,” the bank said, as carried by Reuters.

Goldman Sachs expects China’s oil demand to grow by 1.1 million bpd this year, after the reopening from Covid restrictions.

For next year, the bank sees Brent Crude prices averaging $100 per barrel, down from its previous projection of an average of $105 a barrel Brent.

“This adjustment reflects a modest softening to our 2023 balance,” Goldman’s strategists wrote in the note, commenting on the downgrade.

In January, Goldman Sachs said that solid growth in global oil demand was set to drive oil prices to above $100 this year and Brent Crude could trade at $105 per barrel by the fourth quarter.

In mid-December, Goldman predicted that supply shortages and insufficient investment in new supply would result in a bumper year for commodities in 2023. Commodities are set to be the best-performing asset class in 2023, the bank’s strategists said. The first quarter of 2023 could be more underwhelming than the rest of the year due to the expected slowdown in economies, but the low levels of investment in oil, gas, and key metals will continue to underpin what Goldman has called a new supercycle in commodities.  

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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