Supply shortages and insufficient investment in new supply will result in a bumper year for commodities in 2023, Goldman Sachs says, expecting the S&P GSCI commodity index to post a 43% return next year.
Commodities are set to be the best-performing asset class in 2023, the bank’s strategists said in a note.
“From a fundamental perspective, the setup for most commodities next year is more bullish than it has been at any point since we first highlighted the super-cycle in October 2020,” Jeffrey Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, wrote, as carried by The Australian Financial Review.
The first quarter of 2023 could be more underwhelming than the rest of the year due to the expected slowdown in economies, but the low levels of investment in oil, gas, and key metals will continue to underpin what Goldman has called a new supercycle in commodities.
The drop in Brent Crude to the low $80s is likely temporary, according to the Wall Street bank, which says that oil market participants could be too pessimistic about China’s demand.
Key metals necessary for the energy transition are also set for a bull run amid expected shortages in the coming years, Goldman and industry giants say.
Earlier this month, mining and commodities giant Glencore said that a huge shortage of copper is looming while significant mine development is lagging.
According to Glencore’s estimates, under the net-zero emissions pathway of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world will be more than 50 million tons short of copper between 2022 and 2030.
Moreover, Goldman Sachs also said in early December that copper prices were set for a new record-high next year amid an “extremely” tight market. Next year, Goldman expects copper prices to top the current record-high of $10,845 per ton that it hit in March 2022. It raised its 12-month price target to $11,000 a ton from $9,000 per ton.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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The supercyle that has started at the end of 2020 is still going on and will continue for the next few year thus ensuring that commodity prices will remain high for the foreseeable future.
This means that high commodity prices will continue to feed into inflation and sharpen recession.
And with the Western price cap on Russian oil exports already a failure, we could expect Brent crude price to rise beyond $90 a barrel and even touch $100 during the first quarter of 2023.
Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert