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Russia's Seaborne Oil Exports Plunge

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BP Predicts Global Oil Demand Will Peak In 2025

British Oil & Gas giant BP Plc (NYSE:BP) has predicted that global oil demand will peak next year while wind and solar capacity will continue to grow rapidly. In its latest edition of its annual Energy Outlook, BP has published a study of the evolution of the global energy system to 2050. 

BP has modeled its predictions on two key scenarios: The Current Trajectory and Net Zero. The Current Trajectory scenario is based on climate policies and carbon reduction pledges already in place while the Net Zero scenario assumes the world sticks to the 2015 Paris climate agreement to cut carbon emissions by around 95% by 2050.

BP has predicted that oil demand will peak by 2025 at around 102 million barrels per day (bpd) under both scenarios. However, the rate of decline thereafter will be determined primarily by the pace of falling oil use in road transport. In the Current Trajectory, BP sees oil consumption gradually declining over the second half of the outlook to around 75 million bpd in 2050. The drop is, however, much more pronounced in Net Zero, with demand falling to just 25 million-30 million bpd by 2050.

Regarding general energy demand, in the Current Trajectory scenario, BP has predicted that primary energy demand will continue rising up to the mid-2030s before broadly plateauing amid continuing growth in energy consumption in emerging economies, excluding China, broadly offset by declines in developed economies and eventually in China. In this scenario, global energy demand will only be 5% higher than in 2022. 

In contrast, the Net Zero scenario sees energy demand peaking in the middle of the current decade before entering a terminal decline phase. In this scenario, BP sees energy demand around 25% lower in 2050 compared with 2022.

BP’s dire predictions align with those by Bloomberg, which last year predicted that global demand for road fuel will peak in 2027 at 49 million barrels per day driven by rapid adoption of electric vehicles, ever-improving fuel efficiency and shared mobility.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

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  • Mamdouh Salameh on July 10 2024 said:
    BP got wrong in 2020 during the height of the Covid pandemic when its CEO then Bernard Looney said s that peak oil demand is behind us.

    BP is making the same mistake projecting that global oil demand will peak at 102 million barrels a day (mbd) in 2025 based on two key scenarios: The Current Trajectory and Net Zero. The Current Trajectory scenario is based on climate policies and carbon reduction pledges already in place while the Net Zero scenario assumes the world sticks to the 2015 Paris climate agreement to cut carbon emissions by around 95% by 2050.

    But since both scenarios are based on pledges that will never ever be achieved by 2050 or 2100 or ever, then peak oil will never ever happen by 2025 or 2050 or even 2100.

    Moreover, how could oil demand peak at 102 mbd when it is already 104.5 mbd in 2024.

    Global demand is projected to keep growing well into the future albeit at a decelerating rate because of government legislations, mandatory measures and a modest penetration by EVs into the global transport system.

    In a nutshell, BP will join the IEA in their failed projections.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Global Energy Expert
  • Mike Lewicki on July 10 2024 said:
    What

    We will be higher than that next month.

    Check your data.

    There is no way with 8.56 billion people on earth in 2030.

    Remember, Ed Morse was let go.

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