• 4 minutes Oil Price Could Fall To $30 If Global Deal Not Extended
  • 7 minutes Middle East on brink: Oil tankers attacked off Oman
  • 11 minutes CNN:America's oil boom will break more records this year. OPEC is stuck in retreat
  • 14 minutes The Latest: Iranian FM Says US Cannot Expect To ‘Stay Safe’
  • 2 mins The Pope: "Climate change ... doomsday predictions can no longer be met with irony or disdain."
  • 1 hour Coal Boom in Asia is Real and a Long Trend
  • 2 hours The Plastics Problem
  • 17 hours China's President Xi To Visit North Korea This Week
  • 6 hours Hydrogen FTW... Some Day
  • 9 hours GM Considering Electric Hummer
  • 5 hours As Iran Nuclear Deal Flounders, France Turns To Saudi For Oil
  • 20 hours OPEC, GEO-POLITICS & OIL SUPPLY & PRICES
  • 23 hours Why Is America (Texas) Burning Millions of Dollars Per Day Of Natural Gas?
  • 19 hours Forbes: Giant Floating Solar Farms Could Extract CO2 From Seawater, Producing Methanol Fuel.
  • 13 hours The Magic and Wonders of US Shale Supply: Keeping energy price shock minimised: US oil supply keeping lid on prices despite global risks: IEA chief
  • 23 hours Fareed Zakaria: Canary in the Coal Mine (U.S. Dollar Hegemony)
  • 21 hours Hormuz and surrounding waters: Energy Threats to the World: Oil, LNG, shipping markets digest new risks after Strait of Hormuz attack
  • 16 hours Russia removes special military forces from Venezuela . . . . Maduro gone by September ? . . . Oil starts to flow ? Think so . .

Iran Back in the Game?

Bottom Line: The UK is close to making a thaw between Iran and the West a tangible reality by considering allowing BP to resume work with Iran, and Europe is eyeing this potential Iranian natural gas hungrily. Things are about to change for global energy.  

Iran Oil & GasAnalysis: Crude oil for November delivery fell on Monday by more than $1 over the previous week, continuing the reduction in anxiety over a potential US strike on Syria, and the overwhelming sense of calm that has come with US and European flirtations with the new Iranian president, which in turn has removed anxiety over perceived threats to the Strait of Hormuz from Iran.

For the UK, sanctions that have suspended operations at the Rhum natural gas field in the North Sea since 2010 have kept the country from at least 5% of its natural gas output, and a thaw with Iran would be a blessing. This joint venture with the National Iranian Oil Co. could now be revived.

Most importantly, US and European sanctions on Iran run contradictory to their shared goal of reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. For this reason, there have been a number of exemptions to sanctions for Iranian-backed energy projects—most notably BP’s giant Shah Deniz gas field in Azerbaijan (10% owned by Iran). This was a strategic move to give Europe some alternative to Russian gas, and there should be more soon.  

Also of note in this atmosphere of thaw is an incident in Iran in which the clerical leadership told security hardliners in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) to stay out of politics—or more to the point, to refrain from attempting to block the new moderate government's efforts to resolve the nuclear dispute with the West. There are indications that the IRGC would be rewarded economically (the group controls a significant amount of the economy) for sitting this political battle out.

Recommendation: Things are about to change for global energy in a big way, largely due to a new Iranian president at the helm, Hassan Rouhani. Despite the fact that he doesn’t wield as much control as we would like in the face of the Supreme Leader, Iran has been given a facelift and the West is ready to play ball over oil and gas, over Iran’s nuclear program, and over Syria. Particularly in Europe, but also very much so in India, Iran’s natural gas is already been divvied up—even if only in the mind. For investors, right now keep an eye on BP shares, because we’re talking about a potential multi-billion dollar boost for the company.





Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News