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Turkey Energy Advisory

We have had some requests from Oil & Energy Insider subscribers to evaluate the situation for foreign E&P companies operating in Iraqi Kurdistan and the potential impact the Turkish political crisis may have on them. Consulting with our intelligence wing, OP Tactical, we believe that for now, there is no perceived risk to foreign companies operating in Kurdistan, such as Anglo-Turkish superstar Genel Energy, Oryx Petroleum, Gulf Keystone or Afren.

However, there have been concerns voiced to the effect that if the Gulenists manage to defeat Erdogan in this power struggle, Kurdistan could become less important to the Turkish agenda and attentions could be shifted to Israel, where talks have been underway for some time over a pipeline carrying Israeli gas from the Levant Basin to Turkey.

The fears are based on the theory that Turkey will be weakened by divisions that will distract it from Erdogan’s efforts to see successful talks with its own Kurdish minority in the form of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), and that Turkey will be less capable of dealing with Baghdad, which is trying to stymie the Iraqi Kurds oil independence push. More specifically, the concern comes from the Gulenists’ clear opposition to Erdogan’s attempts to make peace with the Kurds, and Turkey’s oil and gas efforts in Iraqi Kurdistan necessarily play into this equation. The influential Gulenist media takes a decidedly anti-Kurdish tone, and the Kurds themselves…

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