Retaliation Looms After Iran Bombings

While Israel is now withdrawing forces from Gaza under pressure to pursue lower-level combat operations, external incidents continue to escalate from Lebanon and Iraq to the Red Sea shipping lanes and inside Iran.

With respect to Iran, two explosions presumed to be by suicide bombers along the road to the cemetery to mark the 2020 assassination of prominent Iranian general Qassem Soleimani killed as many as 100 people earlier this week. While initially no one claimed responsibility, the Islamic State claimed the attack just a day later, with Iran vowing revenge. While IS has claimed responsibility, Iranian government-controlled TV was airing footage of crowds across the country chanting “Death to Israel and America”. 

In the Red Sea, Maersk found five container ships stranded, managing to reroute four of them back through the Suez Canal. Last Saturday, the Houthis attacked another Maersk ship. 

In Iraq, the U.S. military carried out an attack in Baghdad targeting a pro-Iranian militia (Harakat al Nujaba) leader said to be behind recent attacks on U.S. personnel in Iraq. The Iraqi prime minister’s military spokesperson condemned the attack on an “Iraqi security entity” operating with the PM’s authorization. Of course, the PM (Sudani) is beholden to pro-Iranian militia figures who helped him win the election and who also happen to have a highly influential bloc in the ruling coalition. This aspect of the Middle East conflict is highly likely to escalate further. There has been a clear increase in momentum and intensification of attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq by pro-Iranian militias. These attacks are primarily used to provoke a response (such as that from earlier this week) that gives pro-Iranian groups power to pressure Baghdad to get the Americans out. 

Retaliation is also high on the agenda in Lebanon, where a suspected Israeli drone strike was used in the assassination of senior Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri, placing Hezbollah in a tricky position as it has been trying to avoid full-on war with Israel. 

There are a million moving, external parts in what started as a Hamas attack on Israel on October 7. There are just as many agendas … an Israeli leader who required this development in order to form a unity government; Yemeni Houthis who have seen an opportunity to gain regional leverage by jumping on the anti-Israel bandwagon (very successfully); the Saudis, who are performing a high-risk balancing to maintain newly restored diplomatic relations with Iran; and Iraq, which gets torn down the middle each time there is a ripple of upset in the Middle East.