Geopolitics, Politics & Conflict
-Iran is claiming that it is already increasing its oil production, and will have reached pre-sanctions levels within a month or two. Iran is also claiming that the market would be able to absorb its full-out production of 4 million barrels per day. If that is indeed true, and we’re not saying that it is, it would certainly limit other OPEC members and their plans going forward. For now, the plan is for the group to reassess every month to see where the market is, and then decide on production volumes for the group as a whole and individually. Any increased production in Iran, even if swallowed up by an increase in demand, would surely stymie production from other OPEC members.
Iraq may have a shot at bringing itself into fuller compliance with its OPEC cuts now that Iraqi protestors have shut down the Dhi Qar Oil Company in southern Iraq. The oil company owns Nassiriya and Gharaf, which produce 290,000 barrels of oil. Iraq has failed to comply with its output quotas for months, including in January. The protests come as Iraq battles with severe unemployment.
Following the very tentative peace and transition process in Libya, which will dictate how the oil flows and if it continues to flow, the UN has released a list of 24 candidates for Libya’s tripartite presidency council and 21 names for prime minister. The four ultimately elected will preside of Libya’s first full elections since the war in December…