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Global Energy Advisory March 24th 2017

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

• Violence in South Sudan has further spiked after the announcement of a $500-million oil exploration deal between the government and Nigerian Oranto Petroleum. Rebel forces loyal to former Vice President Riek Machar have kidnapped two groups of oil workers over the past couple of weeks. One of the kidnappings involved employees of Oranto, while five others, including an engineer with the DAR consortium, were also kidnapped. The DAR consortium includes Chinese Sinopec and CNPC, and Malaysia’s Petronas. The rebels are vague on the reasons for the kidnappings. One group has said they are trying to prevent DAR from operating in South Sudan, while a separate group said it would not allow any drilling in territory they control until they are victorious over government forces. As the civil war rages on, the government still plans—unrealistically—to double its current oil production to 290,000 barrels per day in fiscal year 2017/2018, up from current output of around 130,000 barrels per day. Since its independence, South Sudan has relied on oil for all income—a situation that has significantly compounded ongoing political and economic instability due to the fall in crude oil prices. According to South Sudanese officials, production in the past reached as high as 350,000 bpd but fell after a dispute with Sudan over fees for pumping South Sudan’s crude through Sudan’s export pipeline, which led South…

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