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Global Energy Advisory June 30th 2017

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U.S. crude oil exports this month are seen to have dropped sharply to 250,000 bpd, from an average 550,000 bpd over the previous five months, cargo loading data from Kpler revealed. The drop is particularly impressive against the background of a record-high daily rate of 1.3 million barrels, reached in the last week of May. The drop is likely the result of growing exports from Nigeria and Libya—OPEC’s two members that were exempted from the production cut agreement last November.

Libya’s exports for June are seen at a high of almost 660,000 bpd this month, as the North African country comes closer to accomplishing its daily production goal of 1 million bpd. The latest update from the National Oil Corporation (NOC) pegged daily output at over 900,000 bpd. Unless production is disrupted, NOC will reach the 1-million-barrel mark earlier than it initially planned – by the end of July. The political situation in Libya is still very volatile, and production and export disruptions are a distinct possibility. However, since the LNA took control over the terminals last year and handed them over to NOC, disruptions have become much shorter. The NOC’s target of 1 million bpd by the end of July seems achievable.

Nigeria, for its part, boosted crude production to 1.68 million barrels daily in May—the last month there is OPEC data for—after the restart of the Forcados export terminal. The terminal, operated by Shell, has been closed…

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