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Global Energy Advisory 8th July 2016

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

The Brexit Fallout

We’ve been ignoring Brexit largely on the Global Energy Advisory because, well, no one on this side of the Atlantic really cares about the European Union in and of itself. However, what they DO care about is Russia, and the UK’s exit from the European Union leaves a bit of a gap in Brussels when it comes to Russia. It basically leaves the French and Germans in charge (with the latter being great bed fellows with the Russians) and removes Washington’s talking head there. The immediate question is what will happen to EU sanctions on Russia with the UK gone? Now there is a bit of a panic going on as to how to fill this gap, with NATO immediately seizing the day to bolster its presence in the region. Because what Washington loses tangibly is the TTIP, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. This EU-US trade deal has long been controversial, and now it’s highly unlikely to happen, especially in 2016. There’s a concerted effort, lead visibly by John Kerry, to pretend it never happened and slowly hit the reverse button and bring the UK back into the EU fold. But the EU, in the meantime, is already on the divorce path in full force, adopting the attitude that if you’re out, you’re out fast and the details can be dealt with after the divorce papers are signed.

The Terror Surge, Washington and Moscow

On late Monday/early Tuesday, three terrorist attacks…

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