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Global Energy Advisory – 5th June 2015

Global Energy Advisory – 5th June 2015

Forget About Syria, or Reduced OPEC Production

Syria is now a lost cause as far the US is concerned. By this we mean that the US has lost this game in which it was only dabbling—with significant consequences—from the start. China and Russia will go on about how there was an underlying sinister plan on Washington’s part when it helped the Saudis create what is now the Caliphate-bound Islamic State (IS), but this was quite simply incompetence. This is Iran’s game now. Wealthy Saudis are, of course, still doing their best to keep IS coffers full behind the scenes, but the Saudi Kingdom itself is busy trying to control the danger flooding across their border. This follows the launch of an all-out war in neighboring Yemen, which will in turn, end up either forcing Iran’s hand there or giving the oil wealth to Islamic jihadists in the form of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Iranian forces are being fortified to help Assad fight back against the IS. Iraq is also Iran’s game—another Washington has largely lost. (We won’t lay all of this on Obama, though his wishy-washy actions in Syria have helped to create a real monster. The incompetence stretches far back, with the bulk of the damage done under the preceding president). Amid this chaos, and a major oil price slump, Iran and Iraq are talking about plans to expand oil production. This will add to the desperation of non-OPEC…

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