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Global Energy Advisory – 27th March 2015

Frontier Updates

• Amid the oil price slump, if you’re considering Africa, forget Nigeria and look to Kenya. The east African emerging oil giant has just received a boost from the World Bank, which raised its growth forecast for the country. According to the World Bank, Kenya’s economy will be boosted because, for now at least, it’s a net importer of crude. Nigeria, by comparison, is being pummeled by the Boko Haram insurgency, and its revenue base is not diversified enough to be able to handle low oil prices. That’s good for other investments, but what about Kenyan oil? We’re looking at about 2.6 billion barrels of oil—a figure that is likely to increase significantly with new discoveries. One thing to be aware of, though: Kenya—as an emerging oil giant—is under a lot of pressure to make sure production-sharing agreements are in the government’s favor. The country’s draft energy policy proposes a 75:20:5 sharing ratio between the national government, county governments and local communities, but when it comes to revenue-sharing agreements with companies, there is not yet a standard. To navigate this venue, look to Tullow Oil Plc—which made the initial breakthrough discoveries in Kenya and put the country on the oil map. Tullow excels at oil diplomacy, where others bulldoze through to failure.

• We have been waiting for many long months—two years to be exact—for Lebanon to pass…

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