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Global Energy Advisory – 25th September 2015

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

Where you should be worried about things in the global oil patch:

• Egypt: Everyone’s gotten used to the terrorist attacks in the North Sinai by now, but investors should be watching the oil and gas projects in the Nile Delta, where attacks are increasing in momentum and where the coming months will likely see an intensification. The USGS estimates means of 1.8 billion barrels of recoverable oil, 223 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas, and 6 billion barrels of natural gas liquids in Egypt’s Nile Delta area. And the biggest news here is Italian Eni’s recent discovery—one of the world’s largest natural gas fields—off the Egyptian coast. The Zohr field is being billed as a game-changer for Egypt—and as such makes this area a much more attractive target for terrorist attacks. Eni in June signed a $2 billion deal with Egyptian authorities to explore in Sinai, the Gulf of Suez, the Mediterranean and the Nile Delta. While Sinai attacks continue to claim the spotlight, the most recent attack in the Nile Delta in late August has sparked concerns that this venue—due to the growing oil and gas significance—could become a serious secondary target. On 24 August, a roadside bomb in the Nile Delta claimed the lives of three policemen and wounded 27 others. The bomb targeted a bus carrying conscripts.

• Libya: The world powers that be are suggesting that a final draft peace accord could possibly resolve Libya’s rival parliament problem; however, the deal still has to be signed, with a deadline scheduled for mid-October, when the mandate for the elected House of Representatives ends. A lot can happen in Libya in a month, and this deal is not expected to end the armed conflict and usher in stability.

• Turkey: Turkey’s southeast, a key oil and gas destination very unfortunately near the border with Syria, is experiencing a great deal of unrest—even more so now that Turkey is targeting the PKK (Turkish Kurds), while at the same time hoping the Syrian and Iraqi Kurds will be able to fight back the Islamic State across the border. The PKK’s retaliation against Turkish bombings could very well be commercial assets.

Discovery & Development

• Norway’s Statoil and partners have commissioned the first subsea gas compression facility (at water depth of 300 meters) at the Åsgard field in the Norwegian…




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