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Global Energy Advisory – 17th July 2015

Iran: Opening the Floodgates

The nuclear deal with Iran will be one of the most geopolitically game-changing events of the decade. Let’s just back up a few chapters in the long-running saga, though. First, Iran does not have nuclear weapons but for 12 long years the mere thought of Iran someday having them has been enough to keep this game going. Now we have a massive 159-page deal in the form of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which will be handed over to the UN Security Council to adopt a resolution by next week. The game has changed—this, at least, the Obama administration has recognized. And if U.S. Congress tries to block the deal, it will be vetoed. It will take at least 5-6 months to implement the terms of the deal, so sanctions wouldn’t be lifted until next year sometime.

So let’s see where this will take the world in terms of money.

• Russia and Iran will see an increase in trade, but Iran will become a major rival to Russia for market share in Turkey and even in Western Europe.

• Some predict that Iran and Russia will not be heated rivals in terms of oil and gas and that they will actually work together to gain and secure more market share.

• Iran will put oil and gas exports to Asia on the top of its trade list, while also eyeing Europe where it used to have over 40% of the market share.

• In terms of foreign investment, we expect a run on Iran from all quarters as soon as sanctions are lifted, and we expect a lot of people to be heading to Dubai, for which Iran is a key trading partner, to coordinate.

• In terms of oil, Iran has 50 million barrels just waiting to hit the market—already produced and in storage. However, the oil price slump will render this a bit of an anti-climactic starting point. The majority of the oil will go to China most likely.

We will be watching Turkey’s reactions closely. Even though Turkey helped Iran get around sanctions through a billion-dollar gold trade, the Turks have plenty to fear, and the two are falling on opposite sides of the Syrian conflict taking place on Turkey’s doorstep.

Regulations, Litigation & Licensing

• We’ve been waiting for some time for Tanzania’s new petroleum bill, which has now been passed by the parliament. This bill creates a regulatory and legal framework to manage discoveries and control of natural gas reserves and future discoveries.…




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