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Global Energy Advisory 15th January 2016

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

Turkey, Game is Up

You should be worried about Turkey. Two suicide attacks—one perpetrated by the PKK and one by ISIS—demonstrate why you should be worried, if you weren’t already a believer. We spent a lot of time already detailing the dangerous double game Turkey is playing. Now we see the results, and we expect more attacks in Turkey on both fronts.

Earlier this week, ISIS struck in Istanbul—right at the heart—targeting a popular tourist area and killing 10 German tourists. Two days later, a truck bomb courtesy of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) struck at a police state in the southeast, followed by an attack with rocket launchers and a shootout that left six people dead, including civilians.

Turkey has allegedly responded by hitting back ISIS and, as it claims, neutralizing some 200 fighters, which we cannot confirm. But it’s too little too late. And Erdogan is responsible, and will be held responsible by that large part of the Turkish public that he has polarized against him.

Of course, Russia and Turkey continue to trade barbs—even over the Istanbul attack, with Moscow calling Erdogan out for creating a haven for Sunni terrorists, and Turkish government-run media going as far as to blame Russia—and by association, Iran--for the Istanbul attack, and arresting three Russians. The idea that ISIS would clear a path for the return of the Ottoman Empire in the…

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