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Global Energy Advisory – 14th August 2015

Geopolitics, Politics & Conflict

• Turkmenistan’s state-owned TurkmenGaz will lead a consortium of state-owned companies that have proposed to build, own, and operate the 1,800-kilometer Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) natural gas pipeline. The consortium’s Steering Committee has selected TurkmenGaz to build, finance, own and operate the planned natural gas pipeline. The earlier plan was to look for an international company to fill this role. The pipeline will have a capacity of 90 MMscfd, or 33 billion cubic meters of Turkmen natural gas per year. Construction is expected to begin in December and take around three years. The planned pipeline will extend from Turkmenistan’s Galkynysh field through the Afghan cities of Herat and Kandahar to its final point at a settlement on the Pakistani-Indian border. The feasibility study of the project was developed in 2008, at an estimated total cost of $7.6 billion, which has now risen to at least $10 billion.

On a broader level, what we are looking at here is an invigorated race for an Asian natural gas pipeline, and this is in part sparked by the prospect of Iran re-entering the market without the burden of sanctions. Turkmenistan is now prioritizing this project, while Russia is putting up a potential competitor, though some years ago it had expressed an interest in supporting TAPI itself. Earlier in August, Moscow formalized its support for Pakistan’s North-South gas pipeline…

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