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Global Energy Advisory 14th April 2017

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

• Iran’s reformist Oil Minister has run into another stumbling block in terms of wooing back international oil and gas companies. The country’s Supreme National Security Council is reviewing the Iranian Petroleum Contract put forwarded by the ministry to replace the decades-long buyback contracts that had chased foreign companies away. In some ways, this was more effective than sanctions. The new IPC would allow foreign companies to book reserves in Iranian fields and buy interests in local energy companies. Hardline conservatives are opposed to the move and have already caused several delays and forced amendments. As it goes up again for another review, it’s very likely to be a flop as companies begin to lose interest and the uncertainty builds over the Trump administration’s next move. At the same time, Iranian presidential elections are to be held on 19 May, and if a conservative candidate wins, we will be looking at new terms again for the IPC. Mayor of Tehran Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, former prosecutor general/cleric Ebrahim Raeesi and former head nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili have all pledged to challenge the reforms put forward by incumbent President Hassan Rouhani. And now former Iranian President Mahmood Ahmadinejad, another hardliner, has also announced his candidacy.

• Sunday will be a key day for the fate of democracy in Turkey. On Sunday, Turkish citizens will vote on a new draft…

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