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Global Energy Advisory 10th February 2017

Tickers: Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

• Libya is the country to keep an eye on in the oil patch in the coming days, weeks and months. There is little chance right now of the country increasing production, and even maintaining the advances it has made recently is questionable. Alliances are shifting rapidly, bringing together rivals to face new militias sprouting up with crazy momentum. Misrata militia are descending on Tripoli with a new ‘army’ in the form of the “Libyan National Guard”. This new army threatens the Government of National Accord (GNA), which is unable to assert its power and has been struggling for power against the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by General Haftar. The spectre of the new army in Tripoli, however, has forced the GNA to turn to its rival, Haftar, to survive. The shifting alliances—which are all about controlling oil production and exports—means that there is no way to predict advancement in the oil industry at this point. From production to getting product to market to controlling the revenues—this is all clan business that is still undergoing an immense power struggle. Libya is no threat to OPEC production cuts at this time.

• The International Court of Justice will hear a case brought by Somalia against neighboring Kenya over the maritime border and oil exploration. Somalia is seeking to redraw the map but this would take away from Kenya at least three offshore oil and…

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