Incident: British Prime Minister David Cameron is dangling a big choice before the country’s voters should his party win the next election: whether or not to quit the European Union.
Bottom Line: This would be the death knell for the European Union. It would also have disastrous implications for the EU’s efforts in the Western Balkans, whose countries are just on the cusp of membership in the bloc.
Analysis: This would have a particularly negative effect on Bosnia-Herzegovina, which has made insufficient progress on reforms necessary for EU integration. The country’s biggest political parties—three of them guided solely by ethno-nationalist concerns—are already divided in their agenda with regard to European integration. The UK’s exit from the bloc would have the effect of ensuring that Bosnia makes no reform progress at all. It would shake up markets, and reduce investor confidence in all EU countries.