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Weak Central African Republic Collapses

Bottom Line: The situation on the ground in the Central African Republic (CAR) has deteriorated to the extent that we can talk about another failed African state, and the descent into chaos continues on the downward spiral as deadly clashes and massacres surge unabated.

Recommendation: The situation began to spiral out of control in June, several months after the coup, and is now reaching a climax that will see either direct international intervention or another failed state in Africa. There can be no progress at this point without the creation of minimal security conditions which can only be accomplished by international forces, while the current African Union forces are ineffective. The conflict threatens security on a regional level, and mercenaries from neighboring Chad and Sudan's Darfur region have joined the fighting.

Analysis: Both urban and rural areas across the CAR have collapsed into violent chaos as a multitude of forces—from residents and former rebels to security forces and vigilante groups. There have been several massacres over the past three weeks, and on 22 November a country-wide curfew was imposed. An estimated 400,000 people are now internally displaced. As of the time of writing, hundreds of people have been killed in the surge in violence. On 18 November, the UN Secretary General called on the UN Security Council to back military action to protect civilians, and there is now talk of transforming the African Union (AU) force into an…

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