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Saudi Prince Bandar in Egypt

Bottom Line: While Bandar may not have gotten everything he wanted in Syria—yet—in Egypt he has, so far.  

Analysis: In July, the US ordered a review of aid to Egypt, which has not been concluded yet, but which the media likes to think has already been decided in favor of halting aid to Egypt. But it doesn’t matter. Saudi Arabia has already made it clear that it will make up for any aid Egypt loses. Riyadh has Egypt exactly where it wants it and will not relinquish it now. General al-Sisi is their man, as was former Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarak, who is now being released.

Recommendation: What concerns us in Egypt right now is what the Saudi-Sisi response will be to its very recently former allies in the Tamarod movement, which was initially responsible for collecting the 22 million signatures that opened the door for the mass demonstrations that led to the 3 July coup. Following the slaughter of hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood supporters earlier this month, Tamarod has called on the US to withdraw aid from the military and to cancel the Camp David accords with Israel—which is the real problem. There is no way the Saudis or Sisi, whom they control, can allow this. If Tamarod collects another batch of millions of signatures, which it very well might do, Sisi will be in trouble and Bandar will have to come to his aid.

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