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Kenya’s Uncertain Security Environment

Bottom Line: The security situation in Kenya is set to worsen in the aftermath of the September attack on a shopping center as anti-terror police overstep their bounds and threaten to create more radical recruits on their own territory.

Analysis: New intelligence is coming in regarding the September attack on the Westgate mall in Kenya’s capital, Nairobi, in September in which 67 people were killed. Western intelligence is keen to point out that the four Somali militants behind the attack drove overland from Somalia into Kenya and did not originate from the Dadaab refugee camp—the largest in the world—housing some half a million Somalis in northern Kenya. According to Western officials, four al-Shabaab militants crossed over into Somali in June and stayed in the Nairobi suburb of Eastleigh, also known as “Little Mogadishu” after the Somali capital. Four foreigners have been charged with aiding the attackers by sheltering them in Nairobi from June until the attack in September. All four deny the accusations. Two of the attackers have also been identified, but not apprehended. Among them are Hassan Dhuhulow, a Somali-Norwegian, and Mohammad Abdinur Said, about which little else is known at this time.

This intelligence is important because it removes any links to the Dadaab refugee camp inside Kenya. If the Kenyan authorities target the Dadaab refugee camp in their investigations, using questionable methods of detainment and interrogation,…

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