Bottom Line: The completion of Egypt’s constitution and a planned referendum in early January will determine the security situation for 2014, and tensions will be acutely high for the next month and a half.
Recommendation: We are raising the security risk ranking for Egypt through January due to an expected uptick in violence during the run-up to a referendum on the constitution, which will likely strengthen the role of the military and weaken Islamist freedoms drastically. While the trial of deposed president Mohammed Morsi and 14 others has been postponed until 8 January, this will not be enough to appease Islamist forces.
Analysis: On 4 November, the court postponed Morsi’s trial and extended his detention. On 6 November, the appeals court rejected a legal challenge by the Muslim Brotherhood against a September ruling that banned the group’s activities and seized its funds. Earlier this week, Egypt’s interim prime minister, Aldy Mansour, said that the referendum on the constitution would be held within 30 days. The Islamist alliance has not said it would boycott the referendum, but is rejecting the amended constitution. The previous constitution was Islamist in nature, and the amendments, on the surface, make this constitution look like the best Egypt has had in modern history, but between the lines and the qualifications, it severely limits civil rights, particularly the freedom to peacefully protest.
Interestingly, the coalition of Islamists under the umbrella of the Alliance for the Support of Legitimacy (ASL), is calling for a dialogue with the military-backed government, and its latest calls have dropped the demand for Morsi’s reinstatement—a demand that would never have been met at any rate. Support for Morsi is meant for the public Islamist eye, and is meant as a symbol of support for the Muslim Brotherhood as a whole, not Morsi specifically. Dialogue of this nature will become increasingly important in the run-up to parliamentary elections planned for February or March next year. The Islamists may accept new conditions if the military halts its crackdown, but that is not likely at this point. For now, mass protests and arrests continue on a daily basis. The Islamists are out of the game, but a crucial thing for the military-backed government right now is whether its own somewhat hesitant secular supporters are growing disillusioned with their “protectors”. If the secularists view…