It’s time to step out from my ‘normal’ role as the ‘energy expert’ and make a comment or two on the markets in general, just as a professional trader who’s seen quite a bit in his almost 3 decades of daily experience with capital markets and the way they act. Patterns emerge that aren’t foolproof, but they’ve served well over the years and they are making some very visceral noises to me, even observing the action at longer range on vacation.
Here’s something that won’t be news to you – the markets look terrible.
It’s not just the fundamental information that most of the ‘regular’ equity analysts have been filling you full of on every media outlet around: There’s the lowering of expectations on earnings, not just the disappointments of 2nd quarter results (which were uninspiring). It’s not just the continued bad indications from the emerging markets, whose growth rates continue to be guided downward. It’s not the continuing bleat of ‘taper talk’ which (for those who believe this has been a totally fed-inspired rally) would be a total death knell for stocks.
You don’t need me to point out any of this.
But here’s what I see. There’s a stock market that continues to ride the lower edges of some usually reliable technical indicators, like the RSI and Stochastic, usually a good sign…