• 4 minutes Phase One trade deal, for China it is all about technology war
  • 7 minutes IRAN / USA
  • 11 minutes Shale Oil Fiasco
  • 16 minutes Swedes Think Climate Policy Worst Waste of Taxpayers' Money in 2019
  • 12 hours Indonesia Stands Up to China. Will Japan Help?
  • 41 mins We're freezing! Isn't it great? The carbon tax must be working!
  • 24 hours Beijing Must Face Reality That Taiwan is Independent
  • 2 mins Trump capitulated
  • 3 hours Three oil pipeline projects inch toward goal-line for Canada
  • 8 hours The Libyan Oil in a Sea of Chaos, War and Disruptions
  • 1 day Gravity is a scam!
  • 2 hours Yet another Petroteq debt for equity deal
  • 1 day Trump has changed into a World Leader
  • 12 hours OIL & GAS LOSSES! Schlumberger Posts $10B Loss in 2019
  • 15 hours Prototype Haliade X 12MW turbine starts operating in Rotterdam
  • 1 day China's Economy and Subsequent Energy Demand To Decelerate Sharply Through 2024
  • 21 hours US Shale: Technology
  • 22 hours Iranian government can do everything to avoid attacking American people.
Jim Hyerczyk

Jim Hyerczyk

Fundamental and technical analyst with 30 years experience.

More Info

Oil Market Forecast & Review 23rd August 2013

October Crude Oil futures failed to follow-through to the upside after last week’s surge took out the recent top at $107.85. The subsequent sell-off suggests overbought conditions and a possible shift in the fundamentals.

Earlier in the month, a falling U.S. Dollar and escalating unrest in Egypt encouraged speculators to drive up crude oil. Since crude oil is dollar-denominated, a drop in the Greenback made crude oil less expensive for foreign investors. This was expected to drive up demand. As the situation in Egypt unfolded, speculators became concerned about the possibility of supply disruptions in the Middle East.

With both supply and demand potentially being affected simultaneously, crude oil speculators experienced the “perfect trading storm” and took advantage of the situation by driving prices from $101.82 to $107.93 in a short-period of time.

As conditions improved somewhat in Egypt, speculators began to pare their long positions, instead choosing to focus on the upcoming Fed minutes which were due to be reported on August 21. This report was expected to directly affect the direction of the U.S. Dollar since it would reveal how Federal Reserve members felt about the possibility of the central bank reducing its $85 billion in monthly stimulus.

Although the Fed minutes didn’t reveal any surprises, it didn’t dispel the thought that the Fed would begin tapering as early as September. This action by the central…




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News