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Jim Hyerczyk

Jim Hyerczyk

Fundamental and technical analyst with 30 years experience.

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Oil Market Forecast & Review 8th March 2013

After a five-week sell-off, April Crude Oil is showing signs of a potential short-term bottom on the weekly chart. Earlier this week it reached a low of $89.33 before a shift in the fundamentals combined with oversold technical conditions triggered the start of a rally.

At the start of the week, technical oscillators and indicators were signaling the presence of oversold conditions. Although the market wasn’t really attracting buyers, it did appear to stop going down. Once it stabilized, the fundamental news kicked in which drove the market higher.

Late in the week, a sharp rise in the Euro triggered a resurgence in demand for higher-yielding assets. Also contributing to the rally was a weaker dollar. Since crude oil is priced in U.S. Dollars, it became less expensive to foreign investors.


Click to enlarge.

After establishing support at $89.33, the market quickly regained a former support angle at $90.92 and a Fibonacci price level at $91.08. Both of these moves were signs of strength.
Sustaining the rally over these levels helped re-establish their importance as support.

If the market continues to rally the week-ending March 15, traders should watch for a test of another retracement level at $92.52. Crossing to the bullish side of this angle is likely to lead to a test of $92.66.

The most important chart pattern to watch for on Friday, March 8 is a closing price reversal bottom. This will form if the market closes over…

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