July crude oil surged last week after finding support slightly below a 50% price level at $91.26. The powerful move to the upside has put the market within striking distance of a downtrend line at $97.13. A move through this level will put the market on the bullish side of a triangle chart pattern that has been holding the market range bound for almost a year.
Besides the downtrend line, three tops at $97.38, $98.22 and $99.77 have proven to be formidable resistance. Sustained moves through these levels will indicate a serious shift in investor sentiment. If speculators believe the oversupply situation move is overblown then look for them to take the market higher since it is generally accepted among chart watchers that the “technicals precede the fundamentals. “
Another failure in the upper level of the triangle formation will mean the formation of another lower-top. This would suggest another break back to the retracement zone at $91.77 to $90.45. A failure to hold this zone would mean a test of the uptrending support line at $87.03 this week.
Conventional chart pattern analysis has identified the triangle chart pattern as a non-trending pattern. However, this chart pattern has been known to predict impending volatility. Therefore, investors should watch for a potential breakout over $97.13 this week with increased volatility accompanied by rising volume.
Fundamentally, speculators could’ve asked for better conditions for…