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Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker is a 25 year veteran of the New York Mercantile Exchange where he traded crude oil, natural gas, unleaded gasoline and heating oil…

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How to Trade the Energy Markets Over the Coming Week

A few quick blog-type posts today to give an overview of the energy picture and how it should be traded in the coming week:

1 - The word from Vienna on Thursday morning from OPEC was an expected zero:  There will be no output changes from the member states, nor an appointment of a new Secretary, whose nationality might give us some insight into the cartel’s organizational direction over the next few years.  Will he be an ally of Saudi Arabia, willing to change outputs to match demands and price?  Or will he be an ally of Iran, needing to pump the maximum no matter the economics in order to fund a shaky economy?  For now, the ‘status quo’ in output would indicate a bearish price move, as shale oil from the US has impacted total global supply while demand is still only slowly recovering; now at only 88mb/d.  I have believed and continue to believe that oil is NOT A SALE here:  while the fundamentals would indicate a drop, there is still the correlation with rising stock indexes and the financial balloons I wrote so much about in my book, “Oil’s Endless Bid”.  I do not see prices going below $87 in the near-term, with upside potential still. 

2 – Some corporate notes:  BP has abandoned development of their enormous $10B Mad Dog oil field in the Gulf of Mexico, at least for now.  There’s a simple case here about the money necessary to develop versus the output and price…

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