For me, shorting Tesla (TSLA) is like crack or heroin for some people…I know it is dangerous and I really shouldn’t do it, but at times the urge overtakes me and I lose all power of resistance. I rationalize it by telling myself that this will be the last time, and that it won’t be for long. This is one of those times.
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Firstly, just look at that chart! If that pattern of roaring up, dropping and then stalling when trying to resume the upward move doesn’t scream “sell me!” to you, then you aren’t listening. Appealing as that visual is though, it was just confirmation for me that now was a good time to indulge myself. The real reasons lie in something probably not all that familiar to addicts of other kinds, logic.
First and foremost, there is the belief that stocks in general look vulnerable. The good economic news and strong earnings season are now fully priced in, and what is left is a lot of fear about an unstable geopolitical situation and confusion about the possible political implications of a Republican President who now looks more at home with Democratic leaders than he ever has with those in his own party. I don’t have a crystal ball, so cannot accurately say what will cause a nervous drop, but from a fully valued position that looks more likely than another surge, especially to those who are following the drop in both Treasury yields and the dollar.