I was feeling so lonely these past weeks. All alone trying to assess the oil markets, with their wild volatility. Then, suddenly, seemingly every investment bank oil analyst saw the need to weigh in on the price trajectory of crude. Things are starting to get fun again.
It's fun because I enjoy the foil of analysis from the 'big boys' to steady my own opinions on the market – after all, these are the guys getting the 'big bucks', not me. But when I get through reading all their opinions, I usually find that I like my perspective of 25 years of trading, as opposed to their academic thoughts on a market always capable of surprise.
The surprise for me contained in all the reports from Citibank, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs is how unified they all are on the next medium-term move in the oil markets – down. In this, I am in agreement (which scares me), but it is the targets they give that I find difficulty seeing, with some bordering on ridiculous.
You'd get suspicious, if you weren't a 25-year trader and haven't seen it countless times before (or maybe because you are). These predictions are almost begging retail customers to short oil and oil stocks immediately and THAT definitely scares me. Jeff Currie, the commodity head at Goldman Sachs in London, normally sends out quiet notes that shake the markets, yet yesterday was seen on CNBC giving a 10 minute interview on how the retail customer is violently overvaluing oil and oil stocks here.…