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Jim Hyerczyk

Jim Hyerczyk

Fundamental and technical analyst with 30 years experience.

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Prepare For Volatile Oil Markets As Technical And Fundamental Traders Clash

Crude Oil Outlook

April Crude Oil showed strong resilience over the last two weeks, but both moves were related to technical factors. The fundamentals remain bearish, but that didn’t stop the buyers from bargain hunting after the release of the latest weekly U.S. Energy Information Administration inventory report. The clash between the technical and fundamental traders is likely to lead to volatile trading conditions so prepare for the possibility of a choppy, two-sided trade over the near-term. 

The daily chart pattern demonstrates that traders are focusing on two chart patterns. The short-term pattern shows that a range has formed between $44.37 and $55.05. Its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at $49.71 to $48.45 is controlling the short-term direction of the market. On February 5, traders tested this zone, briefly breaching it to $48.20. The second test was on February 11 when the market reached a low inside the zone at $48.93. Based on the price action and order flow inside this zone, it’s safe to say that buyers are trying to establish support inside this zone.

The basic definition of an uptrend is “a series of higher tops and higher bottoms. A change in trend occurs when a previous top is overtaken. On February 3, April Crude Oil turned the trend to up on the daily chart when the previous high at $52.27 was taken out.

Following a top at $55.05, the market proceeded to break to $48.20 where it established a new higher…

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