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Oil Rises As Market Awaits Saudi Move Counter Glut

Despite another gloomy demand forecast…

Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson is a retired computer engineer. He worked in Saudi Arabia for five years, two years at the Ghazlan Power Plant near Ras Tanura…

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OPEC Deal In Jeopardy As Exempted Nations Boost Output

All data below is based on the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

All data is through July 2017 and is in thousand barrels per day.

(Click to enlarge)

The above chart does not include the 14th member of OPEC that was just added, Equatorial Guinea. I do not have historical data for Equatorial Guinea so I may not add them at all. It doesn’t really matter since they are only a very minor producer. Also, they are in steep decline, dropping at about 10 percent per year.

The huge June OPEC production increased was due to a revision, explained below.

(Click to enlarge)

May OPEC production was revised upward by 18,000 bpd and June OPEC production was revised upward by 109,000 bpd. Counting the June revision July production was up about 280,000 barrels per day over what was reported last month.

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Not much is happening in Algeria. They peaked almost 10 years ago and have been in slow decline ever since.

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Angola peaked in 2010 but have been holding steady since.

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Ecuador peaked in 2015.

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Any change in Gabon crude oil production is too small to make much difference.

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Iran’s June production was revised upward by 27,000 barrels per day.

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Iraq is holding steady since their December peak. Related: Are Oil Bulls About To Be Burned Again?

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Kuwait is down 165,000 bpd from their November peak. That is about 5.75 percent.

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Libya is now producing just over 1,000,000 barrels per day. If this trend continues, and it just might, then they should be at their maximum possible production of about 1,400,000 barrels per day by the end of the year.

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Peace seems to be breaking out in Nigeria as well as Libya. This is the worst possible scenario for oil prices.

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Qatar has been in decline since 2008. Her decline will continue albeit at a very slow pace.

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Saudi June production was revised upward by 85,000 barrels per day. That means they have increased production by 169,000 barrels per day over the last two months.

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The UAE is down almost 185,000 bpd since December. This is the largest percentage cut in OPEC. I don’t think it is all voluntary.

(Click to enlarge)

Related: The $50 Billion Backlog Of U.S. Energy Projects

The production trend in Venezuela is obvious. It could get a lot worse as Venezuela is now on the cusp of becoming a failed state. If that happens it’s anyone’s guess as to what will happen to their oil production.

(Click to enlarge)

This chart has an error in the Y axis. It has Jun 17 twice. The last one should be Jul 17. At any rate World total liquids continues to rise. Yet oil prices continue to rise also. WTI is near $50 and Brent is just over $53. I have no idea what is happening here but something is just not right.

By Ron Patterson via Peak Oil Barrel

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