• 4 minutes US-backed coup in Venezuela not so smooth
  • 7 minutes Why Trump will win the wall fight
  • 11 minutes Oil imports by countries
  • 13 minutes Maduro Asks OPEC For Help Against U.S. Sanctions
  • 3 hours Climate Change: A Summer of Storms and Smog Is Coming
  • 7 hours Itt looks like natural gas may be at its lowest price ever.
  • 1 hour Venezuela: Nicolas Maduro closes border with Brazil
  • 4 hours Teens For Climate: Swedish Student Leader Wins EU Pledge To Spend Billions On Climate
  • 6 hours Tension On The Edge: Pakistan Urges U.N. To Intervene Over Kashmir Tension With India
  • 12 hours North Korea's Kim To Travel To Vietnam By Train, Summit At Government Guesthouse
  • 16 hours Amazon’s Exit Could Scare Off Tech Companies From New York
  • 7 hours students walk out of school in protest of climate change
  • 1 day Washington Eyes Crackdown On OPEC
  • 24 hours Europe Adds Saudi Arabia to Dirty-Money Blacklist
  • 19 hours America’s Shale Boom Keeps Rolling Even as Wildcatters Save Cash
  • 5 hours Mineral rights owners,

Forego The Temptation Of Betting On Crude This Week

I don’t wish to boast (who am I kidding, of course I do), but in these pages I suggested that oil would move up around three weeks ago and then, last week, that it would turn and drop lower. The twenty day chart below shows why mentioning that might be considered bragging.

(Click to enlarge)

In the light of that, and given that I am obviously hotter than Kim Kardashian right now, I would love to use this week’s ramblings to give a definitive call on the next move in oil. Unfortunately, though, I have no idea where it goes from here, at least in the short term. That is not something that you will hear a columnist and pundit say very often, but it is something you will frequently hear in dealing rooms around the world.

When I was being trained for my career on a trading desk we were encouraged to admit when we had no clue as to what the next move would be. To do so was not considered a weakness, but a strength. It stopped traders taking positions for the sake of it, based entirely on guess work. Positions should be the result of a consideration of fundamental and technical factors and when those factors contain reasons to buy and equal reasons to sell, as is the case right now, square is the best position to have.

(Click to enlarge)

The same chart as above with a few squiggles added indicates why technical analysis tells us little here. The drop from the high a week or so ago was classic in a couple of ways. Firstly it…

To read the full article

Please sign up and become a premium OilPrice.com member to gain access to read the full article.

RegisterLogin



Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News