• 5 minutes 'No - Deal Brexit' vs 'Operation Fear' Globalist Pushback ... Impact to World Economies and Oil
  • 8 minutes China has *Already* Lost the Trade War. Meantime, the U.S. Might Sanction China’s Largest Oil Company
  • 12 minutes Will Uncle Sam Step Up and Cut Production
  • 2 hours Maybe 8 to 10 "good" years left in oil industry * UAE model for Economic Deversification * Others spent oil billions on funding terrorism, wars, suppressing dissidents * Too late now
  • 8 hours Russia Accuses U.S. Of Stoking Tensions With Missile Test
  • 7 hours OPEC will consider all options. What options do they have ?
  • 2 hours Recession Jitters Are Rising. Is There Reason To Worry?
  • 6 hours CLIMATE PANIC! ELEVENTY!!! "250,000 people die a year due to the climate crisis"
  • 3 hours TRUMP'S FORMER 'CHRISTIAN LIAISON' SAYS DEEPWATER HORIZON DISASTER WAS GOD'S PUNISHMENT FOR OBAMA ISRAEL DIVISION
  • 12 hours With Global Warming Greenland is Prime Real Estate
  • 6 hours What to tell my students
  • 2 hours NATGAS, LNG, Technology, benefits etc , cleaner global energy fuel
  • 21 hours Domino Effect: Rashida Tlaib Rejects Israel's Offer For 'Humanitarian' Visit To West Bank
  • 19 hours In The Bright Of New Administration Rules: Immigrants as Economic Contributors
  • 15 hours Get First Access To The Oilprice App!
  • 4 hours Flaring is at Record Highs in Texas
Alt Text

Kurdistan’s Massive Gas Reserves No One Knows About

The announcement of independent driller…

Alt Text

Gas Flaring “Running Rampant” In The Permian

Gas flaring in the Permian…

Alt Text

Is Big Oil's Natural Gas Bet Turning Sour?

Big Oil has been piling…

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. 

More Info

Premium Content

Extreme Volatility In U.S. Natural Gas To End Soon

The longest period of extreme volatility in the U.S. natural gas market in a decade will likely come to an end at the end of the winter as current forecasts suggest that warmer weather will stay until late in February.

U.S. Henry Hub futures prices began their wild ride in the fall of 2018, following a period of extremely low volatility between February and November that was last seen 1992.

With the polar vortex—a severe but short-lived cold spell—behind us, weather forecasts suggests milder winter at least until the end of this month. As a result, analysts expect the extreme volatility in the U.S. natural gas market to ease as we go into the end of the season.

In mid-November last year, natural gas prices jumped to $4.80 per MMBtu as storage at a 15-year low, an unusually cold fall, production freeze-offs, and high exports from Corpus Christi combined to create a perfect storm that sent U.S. natural gas prices to their highest level since the polar vortex of 2014.

Natural gas prices continued their wild swings in both directions into the New Year, because inventories below the five-year average and seasonal storage draws have made prices highly vulnerable to changes in the short-term weather models and forecasts.

The market and traders reacted to weather models and every forecast of warmer or colder than average temperatures led to extreme market reactions, often in two consecutive trading days.

According to Reuters estimates, the difference between the highest and lowest intraday trading levels for U.S. front-month gas natural gas futures since November 2018 has averaged 8.2 percent from the previous closing price—and this was the most extreme volatility for a longer period of time since 2009, when the spread was 8.7 percent. Related: Kazakhstan’s Oil Dilemma

To compare, between February and November 2018, that difference averaged just 2.4 percent, Reuters estimates show.  

The extreme volatility may have benefited a lot of hedge funds and traders, but it also claimed at least one victim after Florida-based commodity trading advisor OptionSellers suffered huge losses with bets gone wrong and collapsed.  

Market participants were betting on higher or lower natural gas prices, based on weather forecasts and their perception of future heating demand, rather than on current temperatures. That’s why natural gas prices dropped through last week, despite soaring natural gas use and utilities calling on customers to reduce gas use while the polar vortex had gripped most of the U.S. Midwest with the lowest temperatures in decades.

Even before the polar vortex hit, natural gas stocks for the week ending January 25 were 14 Bcf less than this time last year and 328 Bcf below the five-year average, the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed last week.

Related: Bank Of America: Oil Demand Growth To Hit Zero Within A Decade

But the very cold spells so far this winter have been very short-lived, and on average, temperatures have been milder than usual. Current forecasts don’t see extreme cold spells going forward and suggest that typical or above-average temperatures will prevail for most of February.

The “lack of any follow up cold weather is providing justification for a further reduction in the remaining Nymex winter contract’s risk premium,” MarketWatch quoted a report by Rich Redash, a researcher at S&P Global Platts focusing on North American gas-and-power, as saying last week.

Based on current weather forecasts for the rest of the winter, analysts expect the extreme volatility in U.S. natural gas market to go away as the winter season comes to an end, although some suggest that this may not be followed by extremely low volatility that had prevailed in the market in the spring, summer, and early fall of 2018.   

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:




Download The Free Oilprice App Today

Back to homepage


Leave a comment

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News
Download on the App Store Get it on Google Play