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Martin Tillier

Martin Tillier

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Bottom Fishing In Natural Gas

For most people, the fall of crude oil since the middle of last year has been the dominant story in commodities recently. You still hear much talk of a “freefall” and the like, even though the low for WTI was reached more than two months ago and oil is now trading at levels over 20 percent higher than it was then. For industry insiders and those of us who follow these things, however, the more scary collapse has been in natural gas.

That drop started while oil was still pretty buoyant back at the beginning of 2014 and has continued unabated ever since. The 2 year chart for natural gas futures is a pretty depressing sight.

It takes a brave man or a fool to attempt to find a bottom when a chart looks like that, but whichever of those you may think I am, I believe the time has come.

Actually I should add a third type of person who might want to attempt such a feat: somebody with a plan to control the risk, and I would put myself in that group. I will freely admit that I have nibbled at natural gas before and got burned, but regular readers will know that that isn’t for me, nor should it be for any disciplined trader or investor, a deterrent.

If your analysis shows logical reasons to believe that we should be near the bottom and if you are aware that you could be wrong and set stop losses accordingly, then you can, as I have said in the past, afford to be wrong a few times; losing around 5-10 percent on a trade with potential for…

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