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Martin Tillier

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Why A Little Reported Speech Matters For Oil

There is a tendency amongst retail traders and investors to look at markets in isolation. Many are aware that dealing room and floor traders are incredibly specialized and feel that their best chance of success is to be the same. It is true that for most of my trading room career for example, I worked with one specific currency pair and one time period. That doesn’t mean, however, that I ignored other markets. We were taught early on that financial markets are all inextricably linked and that what happens in one can have a profound effect on others. That is particularly true in the oil market with reference to currency moves.

More specifically it is true when it comes to moves in the Dollar. Oil is priced in Dollars on the global market, so if, for example, the Dollar declines in relative value then the price of oil must go up. If Dollars are generally worth less, then it will take more of them to buy one barrel of oil; it’s just common sense. That is why a speech given in New York last night (Thursday, October 1st) that has received very little attention could be extremely significant for oil over the next few months.

That speech was not given by a Fed board member as you might expect, but by ECB Chairman Mario Draghi. Draghi stated that the Eurozone economy had gone back to “Sustained growth” and, somewhat immodestly, said that that was “under the impulse of our monetary policy.” The pride there is, however, understandable.…

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