• 3 minutes China has *Already* Lost the Trade War. Meantime, the U.S. Might Sanction China’s Largest Oil Company
  • 7 minutes Saudi and UAE pressure to get US support for Oil quotas is reportedly on..
  • 11 minutes China devalues currency to lower prices to address new tariffs. But doesn't help. Here is why. . . .
  • 15 minutes What is your current outlook as a day trader for WTI
  • 4 hours Domino Effect: Rashida Tlaib Rejects Israel's Offer For 'Humanitarian' Visit To West Bank
  • 56 mins In The Bright Of New Administration Rules: Immigrants as Economic Contributors
  • 16 hours Trump vs. Xi Trade Battle, Running Commentary from Conservative Tree House
  • 4 hours Gretta Thunbergs zero carbon voyage carbon foot print of carbon fibre manufacture
  • 4 hours Continental Resource's Hamm (Trump Buddy) wants shale to cut production.Can't compete with peers. Stock will drop in half again.
  • 16 hours US Petroleum Demand Strongest Since 2007
  • 15 hours Movie Script: Epstein Guards Suspected Of Falsifying Logs
  • 21 mins Will Uncle Sam Step Up and Cut Production
  • 1 day NATGAS, LNG, Technology, benefits etc , cleaner global energy fuel
  • 2 days Why Oil is Falling (including conspiracy theories and other fun stuff)
  • 2 days Significant: Boeing Delays Delivery Of Ultra-Long-Range Version Of 777X
  • 52 days To be(lieve) or Not To be(lieve): U.S. Treasury Secretary Says U.S.-China Trade Deal Is 90% Done
  • 4 hours Strait Of Hormuz As a Breakpoint: Germany Not Taking Part In U.S. Naval Mission
Alt Text

Oil Demand Growth Slowdown Isn’t Over Yet

Oil demand growth forecasts continue…

Alt Text

Oil Spikes As US Delays Tariffs On Chinese Goods

Oil prices continued to rally…

Matt Smith

Matt Smith

Taking a voyage across the world of energy with ClipperData’s Director of Commodity Research. Follow on Twitter @ClipperData, @mattvsmith01

More Info

Premium Content

Visualizing OPEC’s Success

The mood in Vienna this week is considerably more chipper than it was in June. This is because the cartel appears - in the words of Charlie Sheen - to be #winning.

But it hasn't all been plain sailing. In fact, it's been decidedly choppy. From an export perspective, certain cartel members have made a concerted effort to keep crude off the market, while others have blatantly not. Saudi continues to lead the way in terms of compliance - and they have the most to #win.

Versus last October's reference level, OPEC exports have dialed back by an average of 300,000 barrels per day over the first three quarters of this year. Saudi Arabia is accountable for a large chunk of this, exporting around 260,000 bpd less over the period. While others have also reined in exports, increasing flows from the likes of Libya and Nigeria have offset these efforts.

Although Saudi exports have ticked higher in the last couple of months, exports have dropped from other members instead. This has been out of necessity, as opposed to complicity. As the Venezuelan economy descends into chaos, its exports have dropped as production falls to near 30-year lows. Meanwhile, Iraqi exports have come off amid a conflict in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq.

Elsewhere, Iranian and Libyan shipments have dropped amid production issues. All this activity (well, inactivity) has ushered November exports so far to their lowest monthly level since mid-last year.

(Click to enlarge)

As discussed on CNBC yesterday, while OPEC may be #winning, this is in large part due to Saudi Arabia, who has carried the burden of the cuts. This is illustrated rather splendidly by exports from the kingdom to the US in the last quarter. Related: Vienna Is The Ultimate OPEC Smokescreen

On a year-over-year basis, US imports of Saudi crude fell by 36 million barrels in Q3, as the kingdom slashed flows heading west of Suez to the most transparent, most timely, and largest crude market in the world (a.k.a., the U.S.). US crude inventories in Q3 correspondingly fell by an exceedingly similar 38 million barrels:

This drop in flows to the US has played a key role in helping OPEC on its way towards its ultimate target: the 5-year average for OECD crude and product inventories. According to the IEA, stocks in September declined versus the 5-year average for a fifth consecutive month, dropping to their lowest level in almost two years at 2.97 billion barrels.

Bearing in mind what we have seen in terms of OPEC exports in the subsequent two months since, OPEC - and Saudi in particular - have the right to feel like they are #winning.



By Matt Smith

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:




Download The Free Oilprice App Today

Back to homepage


Leave a comment
  • Lars on November 30 2017 said:
    The only thing that will bring pricing down is lies from importing countries.. The consensus is higher.

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News
Download on the App Store Get it on Google Play