• 2 days Iraq Begins To Rebuild Largest Refinery
  • 3 days Canadian Producers Struggle To Find Transport Oil Cargo
  • 3 days Venezuela’s PDVSA Makes $539M Interest Payments On Bonds
  • 3 days China's CNPC Considers Taking Over South Pars Gas Field
  • 3 days BP To Invest $200 Million In Solar
  • 3 days Tesla Opens New Showroom In NYC
  • 3 days Petrobras CEO Hints At New Partner In Oil-Rich Campos Basin
  • 3 days Venezuela Sells Oil Refinery Stake To Cuba
  • 3 days Tesla Is “Headed For A Brick Wall”
  • 3 days Norwegian Pension Fund Set to Divest From Oil Sands and Coal Ventures
  • 4 days IEA: “2018 Might Not Be Quite So Happy For OPEC Producers”
  • 4 days Goldman Bullish On Oil Markets
  • 4 days OPEC Member Nigeria To Issue Africa’s First Sovereign Green Bond
  • 4 days Nigeria To Spend $1B Of Oil Money Fighting Boko Haram
  • 4 days Syria Aims To Begin Offshore Gas Exploration In 2019
  • 4 days Australian Watchdog Blocks BP Fuel Station Acquisition
  • 4 days Colombia Boosts Oil & Gas Investment
  • 4 days Environmentalists Rev Up Anti-Keystone XL Angst Amongst Landowners
  • 5 days Venezuelan Default Swap Bonds At 19.25 Cents On The Dollar
  • 5 days Aramco On The Hunt For IPO Global Coordinators
  • 5 days ADNOC Distribution Jumps 16% At Market Debut In UAE
  • 5 days India Feels the Pinch As Oil Prices Rise
  • 5 days Aramco Announces $40 Billion Investment Program
  • 5 days Top Insurer Axa To Exit Oil Sands
  • 6 days API Reports Huge Crude Draw
  • 6 days Venezuela “Can’t Even Write A Check For $21.5M Dollars.”
  • 6 days EIA Lowers 2018 Oil Demand Growth Estimates By 40,000 Bpd
  • 6 days Trump Set To Open Atlantic Coast To Oil, Gas Drilling
  • 6 days Norway’s Oil And Gas Investment To Drop For Fourth Consecutive Year
  • 6 days Saudis Plan To Hike Gasoline Prices By 80% In January
  • 6 days Exxon To Start Reporting On Climate Change Effect
  • 6 days US Geological Survey To Reevaluate Bakken Oil Reserves
  • 7 days Brazil Cuts Local Content Requirements to Attract Oil Investors
  • 7 days Forties Pipeline Could Remain Shuttered For Weeks
  • 7 days Desjardins Ends Energy Loan Moratorium
  • 7 days ADNOC Distribution IPO Valuation Could Be Lesson For Aramco
  • 7 days Russia May Turn To Cryptocurrencies For Oil Trade
  • 7 days Iraq-Iran Oil Swap Deal To Run For 1 Year
  • 9 days Venezuelan Crude Exports To U.S. Fall To 15-year Lows
  • 9 days Mexico Blames Brazil For Failing Auction

Breaking News:

Iraq Begins To Rebuild Largest Refinery

Alt Text

The Uncertain Future Of Natural Gas

Natural gas has played a…

Alt Text

Oil Investors Are Growing Impatient

U.S. oil investors are growing…

Matt Smith

Matt Smith

Taking a voyage across the world of energy with ClipperData’s Director of Commodity Research. Follow on Twitter @ClipperData, @mattvsmith01

More Info

Visualizing OPEC’s Success

oil drilling

The mood in Vienna this week is considerably more chipper than it was in June. This is because the cartel appears - in the words of Charlie Sheen - to be #winning.

But it hasn't all been plain sailing. In fact, it's been decidedly choppy. From an export perspective, certain cartel members have made a concerted effort to keep crude off the market, while others have blatantly not. Saudi continues to lead the way in terms of compliance - and they have the most to #win.

Versus last October's reference level, OPEC exports have dialed back by an average of 300,000 barrels per day over the first three quarters of this year. Saudi Arabia is accountable for a large chunk of this, exporting around 260,000 bpd less over the period. While others have also reined in exports, increasing flows from the likes of Libya and Nigeria have offset these efforts.

Although Saudi exports have ticked higher in the last couple of months, exports have dropped from other members instead. This has been out of necessity, as opposed to complicity. As the Venezuelan economy descends into chaos, its exports have dropped as production falls to near 30-year lows. Meanwhile, Iraqi exports have come off amid a conflict in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq.

Elsewhere, Iranian and Libyan shipments have dropped amid production issues. All this activity (well, inactivity) has ushered November exports so far to their lowest monthly level since mid-last year.

(Click to enlarge)

As discussed on CNBC yesterday, while OPEC may be #winning, this is in large part due to Saudi Arabia, who has carried the burden of the cuts. This is illustrated rather splendidly by exports from the kingdom to the US in the last quarter. Related: Vienna Is The Ultimate OPEC Smokescreen

On a year-over-year basis, US imports of Saudi crude fell by 36 million barrels in Q3, as the kingdom slashed flows heading west of Suez to the most transparent, most timely, and largest crude market in the world (a.k.a., the U.S.). US crude inventories in Q3 correspondingly fell by an exceedingly similar 38 million barrels:

This drop in flows to the US has played a key role in helping OPEC on its way towards its ultimate target: the 5-year average for OECD crude and product inventories. According to the IEA, stocks in September declined versus the 5-year average for a fifth consecutive month, dropping to their lowest level in almost two years at 2.97 billion barrels.

Bearing in mind what we have seen in terms of OPEC exports in the subsequent two months since, OPEC - and Saudi in particular - have the right to feel like they are #winning.



By Matt Smith

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:




Back to homepage


Leave a comment
  • Lars on November 30 2017 said:
    The only thing that will bring pricing down is lies from importing countries.. The consensus is higher.

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News