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Martin Tillier

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Time To Reverse A Very Successful Trade

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Long-term regular readers will be aware that I have been consistently bullish on First Solar (FSLR) for a long time. The stock is up just over 155 percent in the last year, so that has been proven a good call, but, as the old saying goes, all good things must come to an end. It is time to take a profit on the stock, and the more adventurous among you may even want to consider reversing the position and selling it short.

(Click to enlarge)

There are multiple reasons to believe that the great run the stock has enjoyed is coming to an end, but the market reaction to another huge EPS beat yesterday is first among them. After the market closed yesterday, FSLR reported earnings per share of $0.78. Estimates going in were varied and even the consensus number depended on who you followed and how they calculated the number. Zacks were expecting a loss of five cents, while other, broader based estimates were for a profit of about the same.

Either way, and even after some adjustment, the $0.78 result was spectacular and showed massive growth when compared to last year’s nine cents. The stock is reacting accordingly this morning, trading up at around $81. Dig a little deeper into the report though, and that looks like a big overreaction and a good opportunity to sell into the post-earnings pop.

The EPS somewhat overshadowed another, more worrying number. Revenue came in at $567.27 million, beating expectations but down over thirty-six percent from…

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