There are moments – very very few moments – when a trader feels he’s got the markets pretty well sussed, has his positions all in the right places and believes that all roads lead to a very rosy endpoint. It’s not only rare, it’s also a little spooky when it happens; as the natural tendency for good traders is to always be suspicious about their positions and ready to rethink, retool and reallocate at a moment’s notice.
But with all that in my mind - I believe we’re at one of those rare moments today.
Oil prices are not only responding to our two year old thesis of decimated capex, OPEC restraint and falling surpluses, they are showing no signs of stopping their upwards climb. The increases in oil prices has forced many of the most doubting analysts to reassess their views of the oil market and begin to see things the way that we have for the past year. In the last week alone, for example, the EIA raised their short-term forecast more than seven dollars a barrel (!!). And many of the big oil analysts at the major banks have begun to see the light as well – Morgan Stanley is now looking for a $90 target oil price, where they before saw little above $55 dollars for 2018 and 2019.
Enough of the self – congratulations…… we are only going to continue to churn out big profits by STAYING AHEAD of the johnny-come-latelys who have latched on correctly to our energy thesis. They need to continue to…