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Michael Kern

Michael Kern

Michael Kern is a newswriter and editor at Safehaven.com and Oilprice.com, 

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The End Of A Remarkable Rally In Energy Prices

Oil prices are on course to post their first weekly loss in two months, with both coal and natural gas prices falling as well. Whether this marks the end of the recent crazed rally in energy prices remains to be seen, but there are certainly more bearish factors on the horizon.

For a deeper dive into exactly what is going on in energy markets at the moment, sign up for a risk-free trial of our premium service Global Energy Alert. From geopolitical intelligence to trading tips and technical analysis, it's your one-stop-shop for all things energy. Sign up today!

Friday, October 29th, 2021 

The recent remarkable energy rally calmed down this week, with gas, coal, and oil prices all posting a weekly loss. In the case of crude, it was the first weekly decline in two months. Whilst oil companies were buoyed by an overwhelmingly positive string of Q3 results (most notably Chevron reporting its highest quarterly profit in 8 years), the case for $85+crude prices has weakened over this week. Iranian talks are back on the geopolitical agenda in November, crude inventories in the US increased once again, and geopolitical uncertainty threatens Bosnia, Libya, and Sudan. 

OPEC+ to Stick to Supply Discipline. The OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee meeting this week largely agreed that the oil group should maintain its 400,000 b/d monthly supply increases, despite importers’ calls for more barrels. 

Iran Nuclear Talks Will Restart Next Month. Top negotiators from Iran and the European Union have agreed to restart nuclear talks by the end of November following a three-month hiatus triggered by the election of President Ebrahim Raisi. 

Chinese Coal Futures Continue their Tumble. Chinese thermal coal futures, as traded on the Zhengzhou exchange, have seen their biggest weekly fall in years, dropping to 970 CNY per metric ton ($150/mt) on the back of Beijing tightening the screws on coal prices. 

Shell Declares Force Majeure at Bonny Terminal. Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A), the operator of the Bonny terminal, declared force majeure as it shut down the terminal’s oil feed line on the back of several leakages, with at least 150kbpd Bonny Light stranded for the time being. 

TotalEnergies Invests in Kazakh Wind Farms. TotalEren, a Kazakh wind firm part-owned by TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE), has signed a MoU on a 1GW wind energy project backed up by a battery system of some 1GWh, poised to become the largest renewables project in the Central Asian country beset by crypto mining-triggered power shortages. 

Equinor Prioritizes Gas Exports over Oil. Norway’s oil champion Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) will halt the re-injection of gas at the Gina Krog field and use those volumes for exports instead in a bid to boost natural gas exports to Europe on the back of the highest gas prices ever seen.  

Reliance and BP Square Off with India’s NOCs. UK major BP (NYSE:BP) teamed up with India’s largest private refiner Reliance to quadruple the number of fuel stations they operate in the country to 5,500 in a bid to wrest downstream market share from state-owned refiners. 

Windfall Profits Might Trigger Wave of Share Buybacks. Buoyed by Q3 results coming in at a profit of $6.75 billion, US major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) will spend some $10 billion on share buybacks thanks to windfall profits from high oil and gas prices this year, a practice it suspended in 2016. 

Year-Long Probe into US Climate Lies Starts. The US Congress started a wide-ranging probe this week that would look into oil companies misleading the public about climate change, with top executives from leading firms like Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) testifying at hearings. Related: Oil And Gas Stocks Are Popular Once Again

Mozambique LNG to Come Back Mid-2022. Mozambique LNG, the 20 billion liquefaction project developed by French major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE), is rumored to restart around mid-2022 after it was put on hold this year amidst recurring attacks from Islamic State-linked militants. 

Japan Wants to Harness Typhoon Energy. Challenergy, a Japanese startup, designed an upright square-bladed turbine that would harness the energy of typhoons - on average, Japan gets an average of 26 typhoons and tropical storms a year. 

ExxonMobil Quits Black Sea Acreage. Following several years of unsuccessful talks, ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) has finally found a buyer for its 50% stake in the XIX Neptun Deep Block in offshore Romania as price caps render further development problematic. 

Gazprom Done with Domestic Storage Replenishment. Russia’s gas giant Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) stated it had reached the 72.6bcm target level in Russian gas storage, finalizing the injections by November 08, implying Russia might be sending more gas to Europe in less than two weeks. 

Saudi Arabia Sees Wind Prospects Surge. Vestas Wind Systems (CPH:VWS), the world’s largest wind turbine maker, seeks to launch the 400MW Dumat al Jandal wind plant in the upcoming months and set up a regional headquarters to expand further in the Middle East. 

World’s Largest Iron Ore Producer Probed by US SEC. Brazil’s Vale (NYSE:VALE)announced it has received a formal notice from the US Securities and Exchange Commission on a potential probe coming up, focusing on misconduct in the mining giant’s public disclosures over the 2019 Brumadinho disaster.

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com

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