The new OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with crude only production numbers for June 2016. OPEC added Gabon to its member countries this month. But I do not have historical production numbers for Gabon so this report does not include Gabon.
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OPEC crude only production reached 32,643,000 barrels per day, (not including Gabon). This was an increase of just over a quarter of million barrels per day. See exact data below.
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Algeria, slightly up this month but is nevertheless in slow decline.
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Angola seems to be holding steady.
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Ecuador is also holding production steady. Ecuador increased its rig count from 2 to 5 in June but that is down from an average of 25 in 2013 and 2014.
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Indonesia has reversed its decline in the last year and one half but I don’t see much progress from this point on.
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Iran’s increase since sanctions were lifted has slowed. There are other problems on the horizon for Iran. They are talking about changing all their oil field contracts to “buy back” contracts. Iran’s hardliners seem to want the option to nationalize all production whenever they deem necessary. This will likely cause a mass exodus of foreign oil companies from Iran and hit their production considerably.
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Yes, believe it or not, Iraq has peaked, or at least peaked for the next several years.
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Kuwait has recovered from the problems they had in April. I expect their production to flatten out here with a slight decline over the next few years.
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Libya’s problems continue, and will likely continue for a long while yet.
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Though Nigeria’s production increased slightly in June their problems with the rebels continue.
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Qatar’s oil production seems to have bottomed out since late 2014.
Saudi Arabia peaked, so far, in June 2015 and seems to be holding rather steady since then.
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The United Arab Emirates had some problems earlier this year but they seem to have recovered. I think they will hold production steady for a while now.
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Venezuela’s oil production is dropping much faster than most analysts had predicted. And they, very likely, have a bit to go yet. Many of their workers and contractors are not getting paid. I expect them to be at 1.9 million barrels per day, or lower, very soon.
Though OPEC production reached an all time high in June, world oil production is still down almost 2 million barrels per day since peaking in November 2015,
By Ron Patterson
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