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Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker is a 25 year veteran of the New York Mercantile Exchange where he traded crude oil, natural gas, unleaded gasoline and heating oil…

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Now Is Not The Time For Bottom Picking

Greece is the watchword for investors this week and commodities have taken a back seat – but is that the smart way to watch what unfolds in the Euro zone? Indeed, commodities can give us even greater insight into the future of the European Union and perhaps the investment palette that awaits us whether or not the Greek credit crisis is resolved or not.

I’m talking about a generalized deflationary trend that has overcome commodities precisely at the same time that the Federal Reserve is looking to begin to normalize rates and the EU monetary and credit issues that have been percolating for three years already, are looking like they are finally coming to a head.

Sometimes the clues to the future aren’t very complicated to find: I look around my table and near my grill during this holiday weekend and begin to measure the costs of everything that’s associated with my Fourth of July barbeque: Corn and wheat have experienced almost two years of nearly perfect crops and as grains have entered their deflationary cycle, they’ve taken most of the dairy products with them. Of course, there’s oil and refined gasoline, making this holiday weekend the least costly for travel in five years. I have been of the opinion that the deflationary ‘cycle’ in oil is relatively temporary – but many would claim sub-$70 a barrel prices in oil to be the ‘new normal’ – and not merely a supply disconnect. Only beef has bucked…




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