• 3 minutes Boris Johnson taken decision about 5G Huawei ban by delay (fait accompli method)
  • 6 minutes This Battery Uses Up CO2 to Create Energy
  • 10 minutes Phase One trade deal, for China it is all about technology war
  • 12 minutes Trump has changed into a World Leader
  • 3 hours Indonesia Stands Up to China. Will Japan Help?
  • 2 hours Shale Oil Fiasco
  • 3 hours Might be Time for NG Producers to Find New Career
  • 6 hours Angela Merkel take notice. Russia cut off Belarus oil supply because they would not do as Russia demanded
  • 6 hours We're freezing! Isn't it great? The carbon tax must be working!
  • 8 hours Environmentalists demand oil and gas companies *IN THE USA AND CANADA* reduce emissions to address climate change
  • 21 mins Anti-Macron Protesters Cut Power Lines, Oil Refineries Already Joined Transport Workers as France Anti-Macron Strikes Hit France Hard
  • 8 hours Beijing Must Face Reality That Taiwan is Independent
  • 2 hours Tesla Will ‘Disappear’ Or ‘Lose 80%’ Of Its Value
  • 7 hours China's Economy and Subsequent Energy Demand To Decelerate Sharply Through 2024
  • 24 hours US Shale: Technology
  • 2 days Swedes Think Climate Policy Worst Waste of Taxpayers' Money in 2019
Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker is a 25 year veteran of the New York Mercantile Exchange where he traded crude oil, natural gas, unleaded gasoline and heating oil…

More Info

Momentum Matters: It’s Time To Ride The Wave

Shale

I happened to have dinner this week with a very dear old friend from my days trading crude oil on the floor of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Ultimately, our conversation turned on our life of trading oil, and the fascinating experiences we’ve had watching oil prices gyrate over the past nearly 40 years. We’d seen massive spikes together, equally disastrous crashes and years upon years when oil prices barely moved at all.

And, despite the many years we’d been observers and participants, we struggled to make even a few generalizations – even some small ‘unified theory’ of oil trading that could be confidently relied upon.

We both remembered moments in the past when fundamentals meant everything, and an unexpected draw or build in stockpiles would have an enormous impact on prices. At other times, they could have little to no impact on prices at all, and the EIA (or for us old timers, API) reports could be ignored. For example, global markets ran a million and a half barrel surplus in supply for two years from 2012-2014, but that surplus had zero downwards effect at the time on $100+ barrel oil prices.

Geopolitical tensions could be the only thing that mattered for prices at many points in the past 30 years. Few remember the first time Iraqi bombs fell at Kharg Island, an unknown Iranian refining site, but it caused the first three day limit-up price move in oil. The allied command bombs against Libya in 2011 provide…




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News