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Martin Tillier

Martin Tillier

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How To Trade The U.S. Election

In case it has escaped your attention, the U.S. has a Presidential election coming up in a few weeks, on November 8th to be precise. It would normally make sense to wait until immediately before the Election Day, or just after when the results are known, to write about it, but this time I am doing so early for two reasons.

Firstly, despite the abject failure of polls when it came to the Brexit vote most people do pay attention to them, and if you do you will be convinced that the Presidential race is as good as over. Clinton has a lead in every poll now, with some showing as much as an 11 point advantage. Given that, those that wish to position themselves for a Clinton win had better start doing so now because others certainly will.

The second reason is somewhat more prosaic, but a lot more powerful. Like most people who live in the States I am now completely sick of this election, and want it to be over as quickly as possible. The campaigning and debates have been almost entirely personal and one can only listen to grown people saying “You’re a puppet…” “No, YOU’RE a puppet!” for so long. Despite that almost overwhelming shallowness there has been one area where the actual policies of the two candidates are not just differentiated, but also clear, coherent and, most importantly could actually be at least partially enacted. That area is energy policy.

It seems to me that Americans frequently overestimate the power…




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