Energy Shortages And Inflation Threaten Civil Unrest In Europe

• According to risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft, the world is facing an unprecedented rise in civil unrest due to rising inflation and energy costs.
• In Europe, even some of the wealthiest nations are facing extreme risk of protest, including the Netherlands and Germany.
• While wealthy governments may be able to buy more time, it appears that the worst of this crisis is yet to come.

Germany and Norway, two of the wealthiest states in Europe, are among countries that are experiencing disruptions to everyday life that in some countries could lead to civil unrest.

This is according to risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft, whose new civil unrest index report revealed that more than 50 percent of the 198 countries covered by the index saw an increase in civil unrest in the past quarter.

“The world is facing an unprecedented rise in civil unrest as governments of all stripes grapple with the impacts of inflation on the price of staple foods and energy,” principal analyst Torbjorn Soldvedt said.

“The data, covering seven years, shows that the last quarter saw more countries witness an increase in risks from civil unrest than at any time since the Index was released,” he noted.

If that’s not bad enough, Soldvedt said that the worst is still to come.

“With more than 80% of countries around the world seeing inflation above 6%, socioeconomic risks are reaching critical levels. Almost half of all the countries on the CUI are now categorized as high- or extreme-risk, and a large number of states are expected to experience a further deterioration over the next six months.”

The countries with extreme risk of protests include, perhaps unsurprisingly, Germany, Ukraine, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Europe has been badly shaken by an energy crunch that began last year due to low energy production and low gas storage levels, worsened this year after Russia invaded Ukraine and the EU responded with sanctions and is about to get worse still as the sanction push continues with a price cap on Russian oil shipments to be discussed by G7 today.

According to Verisk Maplecroft’s report, wealthy governments who can “spend their way out of the crisis” have a good chance of surviving the unrest. Those who lack to funds to pay to shield citizens from excessive energy prices may end up paying with their positions.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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