• 4 minutes Nord Stream 2 Halt Possible Over Navalny Poisoning
  • 8 minutes America Could Go Fully Electric Right Now
  • 11 minutes JP Morgan says investors should prepare for rising odds of Trump win
  • 19 hours Permian in for Prosperous and Bright Future
  • 3 hours Daniel Yergin Book is a Reality Check on Energy
  • 5 hours Gepthermal fracking: how to confuse a greenie
  • 11 hours YPF to redeploy rigs in Vaca Muerta on export potential
  • 31 mins US after 4 more years of Trump?
  • 12 hours Top HHS official takes leave of absence after Facebook rant about CDC conspiracies
  • 4 hours The Perfect Solution To Remove Conflict Problems In The South China East Asia Sea
  • 2 days US Oil Refinery Fexibility
  • 2 days China Must Prepare for War Says State Media
  • 2 days Interconnection queues across the US are loaded with gigawatts of solar, wind and storage
  • 20 hours Surviving without coal is a challenge!!
  • 2 days Portuguese government confirms world record solar price of $0.01316/kWh
  • 2 days Trump's Drilling Ban Bombshell Rocks Oil Industry
Will Trump Bail Out Struggling Refiners?

Will Trump Bail Out Struggling Refiners?

The Trump Administration is considering…

Oil Market Sentiment Shifts As Supply Concerns Mount

Oil Market Sentiment Shifts As Supply Concerns Mount

Oil markets are struggling under…

David Messler

David Messler

Mr. Messler is an oilfield veteran, recently retired from a major service company. During his thirty-eight year career he worked on six-continents in field and…

More Info

Premium Content

Analysts Are Wrong About This Under-The-Radar U.S. Producer

In mid-2017, California Resources, (CRC), took off like a rocket, reaching a peak of over $50 a share before the world changed in early October of 2018.

The CRC long thesis is pretty straight-forward. CRC's insulated market in California, imports almost 60 percent of its crude from overseas. It takes a lot of oil to keep ~50 million people standing still on freeways, trying to get to work or home.

Source A common scene from the 405 in LA.

With its production tied to Brent pricing, CRC should be able to sell every barrel it can produce at a nice profit. Combine that with its low decline ratio from convention reservoirs, and investors have flocked to the stock.

It has rallied nicely from its Dec 24th low, but in recent weeks has stalled out under $30, and recently the bottom has just fallen out. Now headed back to recent lows the question naturally arises…what gives with CRC?

Analyst downgrade due to debt

The market has become much less forgiving of corporate debt over the past few months, taking down the valuations of companies with too much of it. It's kind of funny in a way though, when you think about it (as I often do), the same analysts who loved CRC a year ago when it was on its impressive ramp to ~$50-ish a share, and using the same fact-set, essentially, does a 180 on the stock. Not an uncommon situation in analyst world.

Source

We should acknowledge though for a company with $1.3 bn in market capitalization,…





Leave a comment

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News