I’ve been writing for O&E insider for nearly 6 years now. For this last column, I think the best thing would be to try to give a roadmap to you as an investor for the future without me, or as near as I can see it.
First, our investment thesis: I believe that the current 4 -year dip in energy prices is not a systemic change in the oil economy, but another cycle of the many I’ve seen in my career in the dynamic shifting of global oil supply, demand and price. In the six years that I’ve been writing here and documenting this latest bust cycle, I’ve perhaps missed somewhat on the timing of the recovery, but not on the inevitability of it.
Now we have global oil prices again touching $80 a barrel (ignoring the differentials here in the U.S. for the moment), with the major predictors of supply and demand showing an acceleration towards prices again going well above the three-digit mark – perhaps as early as the 2nd quarter of 2019.
What could derail that? Obviously, a global recession, of which there are some likely signs showing themselves right now. We must be vigilant in keeping track of those, of course. But more pressing is the trade dispute between the U.S. and China, which has shown little motion towards a resolution. I don’t believe it will remain that way for long though. Already with Mexico, the Trump administration found some small concessions with which to claim victory and is well on its way to restoring a new…