• 4 minutes Projection Of Experts: Oil Prices Expected To Stay Anchored Around $65-70 Through 2023
  • 7 minutes Oil prices forecast
  • 11 minutes Algorithms Taking Over Oil Fields
  • 14 mintues NIGERIAN CRUDE OIL
  • 1 hour UK, Stay in EU, Says Tusk
  • 18 mins Nuclear Power Can Be Green – But At A Price
  • 5 hours Socialists want to exorcise the O&G demon by 2030
  • 16 hours Blame Oil Price or EVs for Car Market Crash? Auto Recession Has Started
  • 5 hours Chevron to Boost Spend on Quick-Return Projects
  • 41 mins U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin Weighs Lifting Tariffs On China
  • 13 hours Venezuela continues to sink in misery
  • 4 hours Maritime Act of 2020 and pending carbon tax effects
  • 7 hours What will Saudi Arabia say? Booming Qatar-Turkey Trade To Hit $2 bn For 2018
  • 1 day WSJ: Gun Ownership on Rise in Europe After Terror Attacks, Sexual Assaults
  • 1 day How Is Greenland Dealing With Climate Change?
  • 7 hours German Carmakers Warning: Hard Brexit Would Be "Fatal"
  • 1 day Trump inclined to declare national emergency if talks continue to stall - Twitter hides this as "sensitive material"
  • 5 hours Conspiracy - Theory versus Reality
Alt Text

U.S. Oil Shipments To Asia Set To Rise Soon

A combination of lower shipping…

Alt Text

Canada’s Crude Oil Production Cuts Are Unsustainable

With Canada’s pipeline bottlenecks weighing…

Matt Smith

Matt Smith

Taking a voyage across the world of energy with ClipperData’s Director of Commodity Research. Follow on Twitter @ClipperData, @mattvsmith01

More Info

Trending Discussions

The Least Compliant Country In The OPEC Deal

Yesterday's monthly oil market report from OPEC showed that oil production from Kazakhstan likely increased by 180,000 bpd in 2017 to 1.74 million barrels per day. Such a rise gives Kazakhstan the unenviable accolade of being the most out-of-compliance producer in the OPEC / NOPEC production cut deal - surpassing Iraq (some feat). Digging into our export flows, we see a similar story of surging.

Kazakhstan committed to cutting production by 20,000 bpd as part of the OPEC / NOPEC deal. According to our model, we should have seen a fairly commensurate drop in exports for the country to be in compliance, but instead we saw exports last year of Kazakh CPC blend and Batumi crude increase by ... (drum roll) ... just over 200,000 bpd.

Export loadings outpaced year-ago levels every month last year except January. The current year has started on the front foot; export loadings so far in January reflect ongoing strength.

(Click to enlarge)

This export strength is a direct result of higher production, which has recently been pegged at about 130,000 bpd above the OPEC production deal cut target in recent months. This dovetails with OPEC's view that production increased 180,000 bpd last year, and our view that exports were up 200,000 bpd.

(Click to enlarge)

The ramp up in Kazakhstani crude production and exports is being driven by the Kashagan field, which, after over $50 billion of investment and sixteen years of development, finally came online in late 2016.

Kazakhstan's Energy Ministry suggest that production at the Kashagan field will rise by 33 percent in 2018. also indicating that Kashagan production could rise above 300,000 bpd this year. Related: Azerbaijan: A Crucial Energy Hub

The chart below from the latest monthly oil market report from OPEC highlights the expected ongoing rise in Kazakh production. Not only is Kashagan expected to grow, but the Tengiz field, another of Kazakhstan's largest oil fields, is also seeing renewed investment. As part of the Kazakh-American Future Growth project, Tengiz could see output increase by 260,000 bpd by 2022 - a 45 percent rise.

Given that the Kashagan field started production in basically the same month as the OPEC / NOPEC production cut deal was agreed, it was always unlikely that Kazakhstan would be in compliance. The last year has just proven this skepticism to be warranted.

(Click to enlarge)

By Matt Smith

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:




Back to homepage

Trending Discussions


Leave a comment

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News