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Julianne Geiger

Julianne Geiger

Julianne Geiger is a veteran editor, writer and researcher for Oilprice.com, and a member of the Creative Professionals Networking Group.

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Is OPEC Finally Making Progress Towards An Oil Output Deal?

OPEC+ is making progress toward a deal that would lay out the plan for the group’s oil production in 2021. The official meeting has been delayed until Thursday, after it became clear that additional dialogue would be required before a consensus could be reached.

At odds appear to be the most influential members of the group, which include Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the UAE—each with their own idea of how much production will be called for in the new year.

While progress has been made toward a deal, according to sources who spoke to Bloomberg, there has been no specifics as to what the headway looks like—no specifics.

Russia is the most bullish member of the group, holding onto the idea contained in the original plan that calls for the group to gradually increase output starting in January.

The UAE is asking for all members to be in compliance with the current deal before any extensions of the current deal are imposed and appears to be jockeying for better terms for itself as it struggles with its budget despite adding significantly to its oil reserves last month.

Saudi Arabia, the more aggressive oil production cutter of the group—and the group’s main swing producer—favors doing whatever is necessary to curb inventories and lift oil prices.

The suggestion that the group is merely making headway and not necessarily near a deal could be interpreted as trouble, particularly as the two allies in the group, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, appear to be on different pages.

Nonetheless, oil prices were up on Wednesday afternoon, with WTI and Brent each trading up nearly $1 per barrel by 2:00 p.m., with WTI trading at $45.49, and Brent crude trading at $48.41.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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  • Mamdouh Salameh on December 02 2020 said:
    OPEC+ has no alternative but to extend the current production cuts of 7.7 million barrels a day (mbd) for three more months starting January 2021 until the end of the first quarter of next year otherwise it will squander the recent oil price surge triggered by the vaccine optimism and the momentum it generated in the global oil market.

    Alternatively, members of OPEC+ might agree a compromise to extend production cuts of 6.7 mbd instead of 7.7 mbd for the sake of maintaining harmony among members.

    The vaccine breakthrough and the fact that a vaccination campaign will start this December in the UK, the United States and the European Union (EU) have transformed the whole global oil market enhancing the bullish influences in the market. One could then imagine what a huge impact a substantial vaccination campaign in 2021 would have on the global economy.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London
  • George Doolittle on December 03 2020 said:
    "Saudi Arabia: in worse shape than Venezuela but still not as bad as Russia."

    Sorry but I ain't long Mexican Pesos or Canadian Loonies or Rubles or Euros or Brazilian Reales etc etc

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