“Incredible demand,” inflation, and shareholder pressure on oil supermajors to drastically cut emissions could lead to an oil crisis within three years, with very high oil and gasoline prices, David Tawil, president of Maglan Capital, told Fox Business on Wednesday.
Tawil has been very bullish on oil for some time, and thinks that the prices could hit $100 per barrel soon.
In the near term, oil prices have more room to rise, both from inflationary standpoint but also from demand standpoint, he told Fox Business.
Oil prices are set to rise “consistently and considerably now into the end of the year,” Tawil said.
Moreover, supply from the oil supermajors could be also coming off, due to shareholder and environmental pressure. In the United States, the Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) concerns, as well as the U.S. Administration’s push toward renewables and away from fossil fuels, would also contribute to lower supply and lead to a supply crunch in coming years, according to Maglan Capital’s Tawil.
The world’s largest independent commodity traders are also bullish on oil, not ruling out $100 oil.
Although oil may not be headed to a new supercycle, prices still have room to rise from current levels because of a strong demand rebound and expected tightness in supply, top executives at Trafigura, Vitol, and Glencore said at the FT Commodities Global Summit earlier this week.
There is a chance for $100 oil, Trafigura’s CEO Jeremy Weir said, adding “You need higher prices to incentivize… and also maybe to build on the cost of carbon in the future as well. You also need to attract capital in the business.”
“Higher from here” for the next six months, Glencore's Head of Oil Marketing, Alex Sanna, told the same event.
Russell Hardy, CEO at the world's biggest independent oil trader Vitol, also said that $100 per barrel oil is "of course a possibility," but warned the overenthusiastic bulls that "we're in a slightly artificial market at the moment," as the OPEC+ group still has around 5.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to bring back to the market, by April 2022 per current plans.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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There are many powerful bullish factors currently at play prominent among them a global economy growing at 6.3%, one of its highest growth rates of recent times, a global oil demand virtually back to its pre-pandemic level of 101 million barrels a day (mbd) and a roaring Chinese economy growing this year at 8.3%.
In view of the above, Brent crude could hit $80 a barrel anytime soon. But $100 oil is a different matter altogether. For this to happen, the global oil demand has to grow much further than now.
Yet, Brent could hit $100 in the fourth quarter of 2022 or the first quarter of 2023 because of a supply deficit estimated at 10 mbd triggered by significantly reduced investments in developing new resources.
Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London